India and the Russian-oil tariff

A live tracker, a short brief and a full report on the US tariff authority over buyers of Russian oil under the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026: the law in plain words, India's oil position, four scenarios for the first decision, and the exposure of every major export sector, built from US customs data and India's trade statistics.

The series

Part 1
Will the US Put a Tariff on Indian Goods Over Russian Oil, and Who Would Pay?
A new US law says the President must add a duty of up to 100 per cent to everything India sells to the United States because India buys Russian oil, unless he waives it. What the law says, how likely a duty is by 18 October, and which Indian exports would pay.
4 October 2026 · 22 min read
Part 2
The full report: law, oil, scenarios and sector exposure
In preparation

Charts

Every chart published in the series, free to reuse with attribution to The Geopolitical Economist and the sources on the chart.

A duty under the Act of more than 2.5 per cent wipes out the edge India won in July PNG · SVG

$43 billion of India's US sales pay little or no extra duty today. A duty under the Act could reach most of it PNG · SVG

Under the 2025 duty, exempt goods grew by more than half while everything else fell by a fifth PNG · SVG

India cut Russian crude only when US sanctions bit, then bought record amounts PNG · SVG

Diamonds and jewellery lost three-quarters of their US sales under the 2025 duty PNG · SVG