The Geopolitical Economist
In global geopolitics, truth is one, but the wise interpret it differently. Here, we interpret these diversions.
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Coverage organised by issue, by region and by country, so a reader can follow one story across months.
The European Union, its economy, its defence and the pressures pulling it apart.
Analysis · Africa
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are often described as having swapped France for Russia. The record shows something narrower: the security layer of France's presence was replaced quickly, through Wagner and Turkish drones, while the development finance, monetary architecture and institutional access that came with it were not replaced at comparable scale by anyone.
Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
The price cap was meant to cut Russia's revenue while keeping its oil on the market. Its enforcement built a parallel shipping system whose costs are shared unevenly by exporters, shipowners, insurers, traders and refiners.
Analysis · Africa
Migration is neither a threat nor a tragedy. It is a system of management—and everyone is a manager.
China, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, South-East Asia and the contest for Asia.
Opinion · South Asia
Beyond the headlines: why calling a $62 billion trade corridor a "debt trap" misses what is actually happening on the ground.
Analysis · Africa
The Common Framework brought China and the Paris Club into one restructuring process for the first time. It left the timeline open-ended, and the IMF and World Bank have since called the missing standstill and deadline design gaps. The delay, not the generosity of each settlement, has been its most underpriced cost.
Analysis · Indo-Pacific
How Astana Is Turning Foreign Competition into Industrial Power
Russia, Ukraine, the Caucasus and Central Asia: the war, its economy and what Moscow does next.
Analysis · Africa
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are often described as having swapped France for Russia. The record shows something narrower: the security layer of France's presence was replaced quickly, through Wagner and Turkish drones, while the development finance, monetary architecture and institutional access that came with it were not replaced at comparable scale by anyone.
Analysis · South Asia
India and Russia cannot win the race for capacity. They can contest the race for standing, and standing has a shorter clock.
Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
The price cap was meant to cut Russia's revenue while keeping its oil on the market. Its enforcement built a parallel shipping system whose costs are shared unevenly by exporters, shipowners, insurers, traders and refiners.
The United States, Canada and Latin America: American strategy, the dollar economy and the alliances built on both.
Analysis · Africa
South Africa and Lesotho share a currency and a customs union, and absorbed the same American trade shock. The difference between their outcomes is not primarily about politics. It is about what each country sells, and how much of the value of those exports survives when the buyer changes.
Commentary · Americas
Trump's speech to the United Nations put the contours of 'civilizationism' into greater relief. The real test case is not Iran but Cuba — and the ideology shaping both Trump's and Rubio's approach to the western hemisphere.
Analysis · Americas
Xi arrives in Washington with rare earths, cheap energy, and leverage. Trump arrives with $6 diesel and a war he can't afford.
Iran, the Gulf, Israel and Palestine, Turkey and the Maghreb: oil, sanctions and the wars around them.
Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
In September the Houthis stopped being an insurgency and became a landlord. With al Shabaab on the opposite shore, the Red Sea faces a dual chokepoint squeeze.
Analysis · Africa
Emirati influence in Africa is better measured by position than by pledges: ports, gold markets and farmland place the UAE at the points where African goods change jurisdiction or form.
Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
The pact's most important test may not be whether Pakistan and Türkiye enter the Yemen war, but whether the three countries can strengthen Saudi Arabia's defence while preventing the conflict from widening.
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal and the Himalayan frontier.
Opinion · South Asia
Beyond the headlines: why calling a $62 billion trade corridor a "debt trap" misses what is actually happening on the ground.
Research brief · South Asia
Part 2 of The Protest Question. The grievance behind India's record protest count is the state's failing examination and hiring machine, not the cost of living. The data shows where the pain is, when it erupts, and what companies operating in India should read into it.
Research brief · South Asia
Every count of protests that exists for India points the same way. The ACLED event record shows demonstrations up by half since 2016 and at a record in 2024 to 2026. The police's own count of agitations was rising before that. A catalogue of 217 major protests since 2000 shows the rate doubling since the late 2010s. The protests are also more peaceful than a decade ago. What has fallen is rioting, which is a different thing.
Resources, debt, trade and the politics of the African economy.
Analysis · Africa
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are often described as having swapped France for Russia. The record shows something narrower: the security layer of France's presence was replaced quickly, through Wagner and Turkish drones, while the development finance, monetary architecture and institutional access that came with it were not replaced at comparable scale by anyone.
Analysis · Africa
The Common Framework brought China and the Paris Club into one restructuring process for the first time. It left the timeline open-ended, and the IMF and World Bank have since called the missing standstill and deadline design gaps. The delay, not the generosity of each settlement, has been its most underpriced cost.
Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
In September the Houthis stopped being an insurgency and became a landlord. With al Shabaab on the opposite shore, the Red Sea faces a dual chokepoint squeeze.
