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Russia & Eurasia
Russia, Ukraine, the Caucasus and Central Asia: the war, its economy and what Moscow does next.
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Analysis · Africa
The Sahel Didn't Replace France. It Unbundled It.
Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are often described as having swapped France for Russia. The record shows something narrower: the security layer of France's presence was replaced quickly, through Wagner and Turkish drones, while the development finance, monetary architecture and institutional access that came with it were not replaced at comparable scale by anyone.
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Analysis · South Asia
Why AI Power Will Be Claimed in the Next Thirty Months, and by Whom
India and Russia cannot win the race for capacity. They can contest the race for standing, and standing has a shorter clock.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
The Price Cap Didn't Stop Russian Oil. It Created a Toll Booth.
The price cap was meant to cut Russia's revenue while keeping its oil on the market. Its enforcement built a parallel shipping system whose costs are shared unevenly by exporters, shipowners, insurers, traders and refiners.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
Washington Is Now Defending Russia's Oil Refineries
American diesel passed $6 a gallon on Friday. On Sunday the President asked Ukraine to stop destroying the refineries of the country he is sanctioning. The two facts are the same fact.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
Does Russia Alienate Russians It Later Claims It Must Protect?
Russia's war has driven Russians into neighbouring countries, potentially creating the very diaspora populations Moscow could someday invoke to justify political pressure or intervention.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
Russia Is Frustrated. Europe will be targeted next.
Britain crosses Moscow’s red lines, and NATO’s defences run dangerously low.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
The World Is Moving Toward a Food Crisis. Russia Could Be the Last Resort.
War, fertiliser shortages, export restrictions and El Niño are breaking the global food chain
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Analysis · Europe
How Far Can Europe Go for Ukraine?
Europe has become Ukraine’s biggest financial backer. The real question is whether Europe’s own economy can survive the cost.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
Russia’s War Economy Is Finally Breaking Apart
The Illusion of Strength Is Fading
