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Tracker · updated on every official move · last updated 4 October 2026

The Russian-Oil Tariff Tracker

What the US charges on Indian goods today, what it charged during the 2025 Russian-oil duty, and what a duty under the new Russia sanctions law would hit, product by product, with sources. Updated on every official move.

1. Where things stand

Awaiting decision

No duty under the Act yet. The President "shall" impose one by 18 October 2026 unless he waives it (Sec. 113(a) and 115). Indian goods pay a 10 per cent extra US duty today.

Last checked
4 October 2026, 17:43 IST
Extra US duty on Indian goods today
10%

Section 301, since 24 July 2026. Phones, medicines and fuel pay none; steel, aluminium and autos pay Section 232 rates instead.

Federal Register, 28 July 2026 · PIB, 25 July 2026

Duty under the Russia sanctions Act
None yet

Up to 100% on all goods, due by 18 October unless the President waives it.

Sec. 113 and 115, enrolled text

Deadline
18 Oct2026

A written justification must reach Congress at least 10 days before any duty: by 8 October.

Sec. 113(a) and 113(g)

India's Russian crude, September
1.74mb/d

The lowest since April, about a third of crude imports. India is the first or second largest buyer.

Kpler via ThePrint · KSE Institute

2. Last time: the 2025 Russian-oil duty

In August 2025 Washington added 25 per cent to Indian goods by executive order because India bought Russian oil. Some goods were exempt, and the duty was lifted in February 2026.

What happened, step by step

  1. 6 Aug 2025Executive Order 14329 adds 25% to Indian goods, finding that India "is currently directly or indirectly importing Russian Federation oil".Executive Order 14329
  2. 27 Aug 2025The 25% takes effect on top of the 25% reciprocal tariff: 50% in all on goods that were not exempt.Executive Order 14329 · ICRIER
  3. 7 Feb 2026Executive Order 14384 lifts it, saying India "has committed to stop" importing Russian oil, and tells the Commerce Department to "monitor whether India resumes".Executive Order 14384
  4. 20 Feb 2026The Supreme Court rules that the emergency-powers law does not allow tariffs, which ends the reciprocal tariff as well.Baker Donelson
  5. 24 Feb 2026A temporary global surcharge under Section 122 starts and runs for 150 days, to 24 July.Baker Donelson
  6. 24 Jul 2026A 10% Section 301 duty applies to Indian goods, with about 45% of India's exports to the US exempt.Federal Register · PIB

What was exempt

Why goods get exempted. Washington spares goods it cannot easily do without. When it set today's 10 per cent in July 2026, the trade office said its exemptions cover goods whose tariffs "could lead to the unavailability of domestic supply", "could cause economy-wide disruptions" or that "cannot be grown or produced in sufficient quantities in the United States".Federal Register, 28 July 2026

Under the 2025 duty, exempt goods grew by more than half while everything else fell by a fifth. Diamonds and jewellery lost three-quarters of their US sales.

Diamonds and jewellery lost three-quarters of their US sales under the 2025 duty
PNG · SVG

3. If a new duty comes: which products, and which could be exempted

The Act applies the duty to "all goods" from a covered country (Sec. 113(a)) and adds it on top of every other duty, including Section 232 (Sec. 113(f)). Unlike 2025, it has no list of exempt products. The table compares each product group across the three regimes.

Product2025 Russian-oil dutyTodayIf the Act's duty comesCould it be exempted?
Smartphones and network equipment$24.8bn of US imports in 2025Exempt: on the electronics list from April 2025US imports +129%ExemptCoveredWaiver only The Act has no product exemptions. Washington exempted phones in 2025 and again in July 2026, so a waiver would have precedent.
Medicines$14.6bn of US imports in 2025Exempt: pharmaceuticalsUS imports −8%ExemptCovered, unless the humanitarian clause appliesPossible Sec. 114 names "medicine". Whether it reaches a tariff is untested.
Petroleum products$3.2bn of US imports in 2025Exempt: energy productsUS imports +25%ExemptCoveredWaiver only No exemption in the Act. Exempted in 2025 and again in July 2026.
Machinery and electrical goods$12.6bn of US imports in 202550% in all on most lines; computers exemptUS imports +2% and −9%10% on most lines; computers and semiconductors exemptCoveredNone No exemption in the Act for these lines.
Clothing, home textiles and carpets$9.1bn of US imports in 202550% in allUS imports −11% to −19%10%Covered, on top of the 10%None No exemption in the Act, and never exempted so far.
Diamonds and jewellery$5.6bn of US imports in 202550% in allUS imports −77% and −79%10%; jewellery also pays a 5.5 to 6% MFN dutyCovered, on top of the 10%None No exemption in the Act. In February 2026 the US said it would remove tariffs on gems and diamonds once an interim trade agreement was concluded; none has been.
Steel articles and auto parts$4.5bn of US imports in 2025Section 232 goods paid those rates only; other lines paid 50%US imports −15% and −13%Section 232 rates on listed goods (50% steel, 25% auto parts); 10% on the restCovered, and added on top of Section 232None Unlike 2025, Section 232 gives no shelter: the Act's duty comes on top (Sec. 113(f)).
Chemicals$4.1bn of US imports in 202550% in all on most linesUS imports +7%10%; pharmaceutical ingredients exemptCoveredUnclear Pharmaceutical ingredients might count as "related to" medicine under Sec. 114; untested.
Shrimp$1.9bn of US imports in 202550% in all, plus anti-dumping and countervailing dutiesUS imports −27%10%, plus anti-dumping and countervailing dutiesCovered, unless the humanitarian clause appliesPossible Sec. 114 names "food". Whether it reaches a tariff is untested.

US imports from India in 2025, US$ billion; the change is US imports during the 2025 duty (August 2025 to February 2026) against the same months a year earlier. MFN is the most-favoured-nation duty every supplier pays.

How a product could still escape a new duty

Food and medicine, possibly

Sec. 114 says sanctions and other measures under the title "shall not apply to" transactions for "the provision of agricultural commodities, food, medicine, medical devices". Whether a tariff counts is untested.

Anything, by waiver

The President may waive "any duty under this title" by certifying to Congress that it is "in the national interests of the United States" (Sec. 115). The Act does not say whether a waiver can cover some products and not others.

Cargo at sea, perhaps

In 2025 goods already in transit were spared. The Act says nothing about them, so the implementing order would decide.

Not steel, aluminium or autos

In 2025 goods under Section 232 tariffs were spared the oil duty. This time the duty comes on top of Section 232 (Sec. 113(f)).

Source: The enrolled text of the Act, Sec. 113, 114 and 115.

$43 billion of India's US sales pay little or no extra duty today. A duty under the Act could reach most of it
PNG · SVG

The full table of eighteen sectors, with each sector's dependence on the US market and its rivals' duties, is in the brief and in the dataset. Read the brief · Open the dataset

4. What happens next

Dates ahead

  1. 6 OctUS trade figures for August: the first full month under the 10% duty.
  2. By 8 OctLast day for the written justification to Congress if a duty is to start on 18 October.Sec. 113(g)
  3. 10 to 14 OctCREA's analysis for September: India's rank among buyers of Russian oil.
  4. 15 OctIndia's trade figures for September.
  5. 18 OctDay 30: a duty, a waiver or a delay. New Russian purchases count from this day.Sec. 113(a) and (c)
  6. Late OctNovember-delivery Russian cargoes load for India: the test of "new purchases".
  7. 3 NovUS midterm elections.
  8. 4 NovUS trade figures for September.
  9. 16 Apr 2027First 180-day review of the five largest buyers, if a duty starts on 18 October.Sec. 113(e)
  10. 18 Sep 2031The tariff authority expires.Sec. 203

Four scenarios for the first decision

Scenario A

No new duty

India is named as a top buyer but the President waives the duty under Sec. 115 or holds it back, tied to the trade deal or to cuts in Russian purchases; or India is left off the list, including because it makes no new purchases.

Signs it is coming. A waiver certification sent to Congress. Progress on the interim trade deal. Refiners booking fewer Russian cargoes.

For exporters. No new duty now. A waiver can be withdrawn, and the list is redrawn every 180 days once any country pays the duty.

Likelihood: Roughly even chance (about 50%)

Scenario B

A low signal rate

A duty above zero and up to 15 per cent is added to keep pressure on.

Signs it is coming. A justification to Congress with a modest rate. Officials stressing the steps India has taken.

For exporters. The July edge over Vietnam is gone; margins are squeezed; few orders move.

Likelihood: Unlikely (about 25%)

Scenario C

A repeat of 2025

A duty above 15 and below 50 per cent, about 25 as in 2025.

Signs it is coming. Trade talks stall. Officials cite the February pledge. Russian imports stay near 2 million barrels a day.

For exporters. A repeat of 2025–26: orders move in price-sensitive sectors, and this time smartphones pay too.

Likelihood: Unlikely (about 20%, the low edge of the band)

Scenario D

A high rate

A duty of 50 to 100 per cent is added.

Signs it is coming. An open break in talks. Pressure from Congress to enforce. No fall in Russian imports.

For exporters. Most price-sensitive exports to the US stop being viable.

Likelihood: Very unlikely (about 5%, the low edge of the band)

If India makes no new purchases of Russian crude or gas from 18 October, it falls outside the importer test (Sec. 113(c)(1)), though the separate test for countries that help evade sanctions (Sec. 113(c)(2)) remains. We judge that very unlikely before the decision.

Likelihoods use the US intelligence community's scale (ICD 203): very unlikely 5–20%, unlikely 20–45%, roughly even chance 45–55%, likely 55–80%. They are judgements on the evidence to 4 October 2026, not predictions, and the reasons are set out in the brief. After the decision we will say which scenario happened and what we got wrong.

A duty under the Act of more than 2.5 per cent wipes out the edge India won in July
PNG · SVG

5. Signals log

Download as CSV

Every official statement, action and deadline, newest first, each with its source.

  1. 1 October 2026US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer: Greer: "we do have to do a report within 30 days — we have to name names — so we'll be doing that. What kind of action we'll take is for the president to decide"; India's Russian purchases "really kind of a wartime-discount situation"US trade representative won't commit to new Russian sanctions
  2. 1 October 2026US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer: 'We're in the short strokes, so I think we're toward the end of it'; 'I don't think there's something imminent, but we truly have identified the universe of items that are sticking points'; 'the president and prime minister may have another call very soon'India-US trade deal in 'short strokes': Greer (IANS)
  3. 30 September 2026PM Narendra Modi and President Trump (India-initiated): Modi on X: 'Had a productive conversation with President Trump. We reviewed our bilateral cooperation in trade, defence, energy, critical technologies and other areas. We agreed to maintain close engagement to take our Comprehensive Global Strategic Partnership forward.' No US readoutPM Modi, Trump Hold 'Productive Call' On Defence, Trade And Critical Technologies
  4. 30 September 2026Commerce Minister Goyal and USTR Greer (G20 Trade Ministers, Milwaukee): Goyal on X: 'Had a productive discussion with USTR Greer towards early conclusion of a mutually beneficial interim agreement under the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement'; BS: 'Trump is yet to announce a final decision on the tariff, including its rate and coverage'Goyal meets USTR Greer, discuss early conclusion of India-US interim deal
  5. 28 September 2026Senior State Department official (as reported by IndraStra): The official said there were "no sort of hard feelings" over India's reaction to the Act, pitched US energy supplies, and said Secretary of State Rubio "plans to visit in October"; no date givenNew U.S. Law Revives Tariff Threat Over India's Russian Oil as Trade Talks Continue (IndraStra, 28 Sept 2026)
  6. 27 September 2026Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and a US congressional delegation led by Brian Mast: Foreign Secretary 'conveyed our concerns about the SRIA legislation, as to the kind of implications it would have for bilateral relationships, as well as for the international energy market' (MEA, 29 Sept)Foreign secretary conveyed India's concerns over SRIA implications to US delegation: MEA (PTI)
  7. 25 September 2026Senior State Department official (ANI): 'Congress gave the President another tool in his toolkit. That doesn't mean necessarily that he's going to implement that tomorrow'; 'they gave him a huge national security waiver'Russia Sanctions bill gives US President 'new tool' with national security waivers, does not mean he deploys it tomorrow: Senior State Department official
  8. 24 September 2026Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal (PAFI event, New Delhi): US deal 'almost done and dusted'; 'We just have to find the right comparable competitive advantage over our competitor so that we can quickly execute the agreement'India-US trade deal almost 'done and dusted', says Piyush Goyal
Show 18 earlier entries
  1. 24 September 2026President Trump and President Xi (Washington summit, 24-25 Sept): 'Chinese officials criticized the Act before the September 24 meeting between Chinese President Xi and President Trump'The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 (Sullivan & Cromwell)
  2. 23 September 2026EAM S. Jaishankar and Secretary of State Marco Rubio: Jaishankar meets Rubio in New York and "reiterated India's interests and concerns with regard to SRIA"; State says Rubio "emphasised that the United States remains well-positioned to help regional partners address their energy security challenges"EAM Jaishankar, Rubio discuss impact of Russia-linked sanctions on India (Bloomberg)
  3. 22 September 2026President: At the UN General Assembly the President says the Act gives him "enormous new tariff authorities" and that "if necessary" he "will have to use them", naming no country, rate or timetableSullivan & Cromwell memo, 29 Sept 2026
  4. 22 September 2026Kpler via Reuters/Oilprice: Aug 2026 Russian crude to India 2.1 mbpd (-16.5% m/m); Sept preliminary 1.9 mbpd; Apr-Aug oil import bill $74.8 bn (+48.4% y/y)India's Russian Oil Imports Slide as Refiners Hunt for Alternatives
  5. 21 September 2026Indian refiners (Bloomberg): Top refiners "have begun to look seriously for alternative cargoes" for November delivery; Urals delivered India about $133/bbl (Argus); "India will be watching whether Washington applies the measures to all major Russian energy buyers, including China"Bloomberg via Business Standard 21 Sept 2026
  6. 21 September 2026RILA: Retail lobby asks how rates will be set and how often they could changeRILA blog 21 Sept 2026
  7. 21 September 2026Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal: India 'is studying details of US tariffs on buyers of Russian oil' (said Monday)Govt studying details of US tariffs on Russian oil buyers: Piyush Goyal
  8. 19 September 2026CITI chairman Ashwin Chandran: 'Any additional tariffs under this Act will be very difficult to absorb for the MSME-dominated Indian textile and apparel sector'; calls for 'a fair, balanced, and equitable bilateral trade deal'US tariff threat puts Indian textile exports at risk, CITI warns
  9. 18 September 2026MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal: MEA: "meeting the energy requirements of our 1.4 billion people is an imperative"; energy sourcing "is based on our national interest"; India has "conveyed the implications" of the Act for the trade deal to the US administration and is "determined to take all necessary measures to protect our trade and economic interests"Tribune (ANI) and Business Standard, 18 Sept 2026
  10. 18 September 2026lawPresident: Signs H.R. 5334, the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, which 'authorizes and expands statutory sanctions, tariffs, and prohibitions on Russia and extends existing sanctions on Iran'; 30-day clock for sec. 112/113 duties runs to 18 Oct 2026Congressional Bill H.R. 5334 Signed into Law
  11. 16 September 2026lawUS House of Representatives: House agrees to the Senate text 262-159Sullivan & Cromwell memo, 29 Sept 2026
  12. 14 September 2026lawHouse Rules Committee: Rep. Steny Hoyer's amendment that would have named Azerbaijan, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Singapore, Slovakia, Türkiye and the UAE as targets is not adoptedAkin Gump alert, 23 Sept 2026
  13. 11 September 2026AAFA and 36 others: 37 US trade associations, led by AAFA, write to the House opposing the secondary tariff authorityAAFA-led joint association letter to the House, 11 Sept 2026
  14. 7 August 2026lawUS Senate: Senate passes the Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act 86-11, inserted into H.R. 5334Sullivan & Cromwell memo, 29 Sept 2026
  15. 24 July 2026dutyUSTR: 10% Section 301 duty on Indian goods takes effect (heading 9903.05.44); about 45% of exports exemptFederal Register notice of 28 July 2026; PIB 25 July 2026
  16. 7 February 2026precedentWhite House: 2025 Russian-oil duty on India removed; Commerce told to monitor any resumption of Russian oil importsExecutive order (Federal Register 11 Feb 2026)
  17. 6 February 2026precedentWhite House and Government of India: US-India joint statement: 18% rate and India's purchase pledgeUnited States-India Joint Statement
  18. 27 August 2025precedentWhite House: 25% additional duty on Indian goods over Russian oil takes effectExecutive order of 6 August 2025 (Federal Register 11 Aug 2025)

6. Data, method and sources

Key data files
  • Signals log CSV

    Every dated official statement, action and deadline since the 2025 precedent, with type, actor, source and status.

  • Sector exposure table CSV

    Eighteen export sectors: US imports in 2025, the US share of each sector's exports, the change under the 2025 duty, the extra US duty today and rivals' duty, and the exposure rating.

  • US imports from India by month CSV

    Jan 2024 to Jul 2026, customs value, checked against the Census Bureau's India page. Duty columns await a Census API key.

  • US imports from India by sector and month CSV

    The eighteen sector codes of the plan, monthly.

  • Sector change during the 2025–26 penalty CSV

    Average monthly imports Aug 2025–Feb 2026 against Jan–Jul 2025 and against a year earlier, by sector and chapter.

All 15 files, the charts and the method note

How this tracker works
  • Checked every weekday until the decision, then on every event and monthly.
  • Every figure links to its primary source: the enrolled text of the Act, the Federal Register, CREA, the KSE Institute, Kpler as reported, the US Census Bureau and India's commerce ministry. Statements about the law quote the statute, not a memo or a news report.
  • Oil figures name their tracker each time, because ship-tracking firms differ.
  • The tracker maps scenarios and exposure. It does not predict the decision, and it gives no advice on individual securities.

The research project

From the research

Change log

  1. 4 October 2026Page reorganised into six numbered sections. New: the 2025 Russian-oil duty step by step, with what was exempt and why; a product-by-product comparison of the 2025 duty, today's duty and a duty under the Act, with whether each product could be exempted and on what basis; the ways a product could still escape a new duty; a short list of dates ahead. Sources are linked in every section.
  2. 4 October 2026Published with the research brief, version 1.0. Scenario likelihoods added on the ICD 203 scale, with the scenario bands redrawn so that together they cover every rate. Sector exposure table added for eighteen sectors. Charts redrawn in the house style.
  3. 4 October 2026Signals log merged from the precedent and decision reading (36 entries, deduplicated to 30). Oil numbers rebuilt from the KSE Institute's thirteen monthly editions and CREA; US import series from UN Comtrade, checked against the Census Bureau; India's export side from TradeStat. Charts added.
Show 2 earlier changes
  1. 4 October 2026Statute read in full; status text, rank note and the exit note now quote Secs. 113(a), 113(b), 113(c), 113(f) and 115. Derived dates added to the signals log.
  2. 4 October 2026Tracker created as a draft with the verified facts of 3 October 2026 and the signals log since the 2025 precedent.

Corrections: write to [email protected] with the line and your source. Analysis for information; not legal or investment advice.