Articles
42 published · RSS-
Research report · Americas
Can America Sustain Its Global Defence Commitments?
Europe, the Middle East and East Asia, 2027–2030. A members' research report on whether the United States can keep its security commitments when crises overlap: the forces it can use, what allies can take on, and three scenarios to 2030.
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Analysis · Indo-Pacific
The US–China Truce Is Held Together by Hostages, Not Trust
Each extension of the US–China trade truce is shorter than the last. What keeps it alive before Shenzhen is not a deal but two chokepoints, China's rare earths and America's aircraft parts, each held as a hostage by the other side.
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Research report · South Asia
Will the US Switch On Its Waived 100% Russian-Oil Tariff, and Which Indian Exports Would Pay?
The full report. On 16 October Washington set a 100 per cent duty on the largest buyers of Russian oil and waived it in the same order. What the law and the order say, where India's Russian oil buying stands, how the waiver could end, and which Indian exports would pay if it does.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
Bangkok's Debt Test: Who Pays for the Iran War?
The IMF and World Bank arrive in Bangkok as the Iran war drives up fuel and fertilizer costs. The crisis is not only about supply. It is about which governments still have room to protect their people, and which are being forced to pass the bill on.
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Analysis · South Asia
Delhi’s Barricades and the ‘Vote Theft’ Claim: What the SIR Record Shows
The October 10 protest put two different questions on the same street: whether the Election Commission’s Special Intensive Revision has been conducted transparently, and whether a political slogan can turn a disputed roll exercise into proof that an election was stolen. The first deserves an answer. The second still lacks the evidence it claims.
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Research brief · Russia & Eurasia
Which Firms in India, the UAE, Türkiye and China Are the US, EU and UK Sanctioning Over Russia and Iran?
Since January 2024 the US, the EU and the UK have taken 1,674 measures under their Russia and Iran sanctions against firms and people with an address in India, the UAE, Türkiye, mainland China or Hong Kong. A new monitor records every one, links it to its official source, and sets it beside the rules and the trade at stake.
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Research brief · South Asia
Will the US Put a Tariff on Indian Goods Over Russian Oil, and Who Would Pay?
A new US law says the President must add a duty of up to 100 per cent to everything India sells to the United States because India buys Russian oil, unless he waives it. What the law says, how likely a duty is by 18 October, and which Indian exports would pay.
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Research brief · South Asia
Five Movements, One Template: What India's Big Protests Have in Common
Part 5 of The Protest Question. Put India's five largest movements since 2019 on the same twelve-line template and a pattern appears. Each had a domestic trigger a court or ministry can be named for. Each was met with a foreign-hand claim within days. Twenty such claims are on the record. A court has upheld none of them.
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Research brief · South Asia
The Verdict: Is India's Protest Wave Engineered?
Part 6 of The Protest Question. The series set out to test a hypothesis many Indians hold and officials repeat: that the country's rising protests are engineered from outside. This part makes the strongest case for it, the strongest case against it, and says what the evidence settles, what it cannot, and what follows for the state, for investors and for India's standing.
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Research brief · South Asia
Follow the Money: What the FCRA Record Shows About Who Pays for India's Protests
Part 3 of The Protest Question. The state's lever over foreign money is the Foreign Contribution (Regulation) Act, and it has been pulled hard: half the licences gone in a decade, a new Bill that would seize lapsed NGOs' assets. What the orders, charge sheets and judgments do not yet contain is a single finding that foreign money paid for a protest of the last six years.
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Research brief · South Asia
The Foreign Hand, Measured: What Is Proven About the Amplification of India's Protests
Part 4 of The Protest Question. Coordinated amplification of Indian protest is plausible in every direction and documented in several. For the Cockroach Janta Party movement of 2026, the claims of a Pakistani network and a digital conspiracy rest, as of October, on nothing anyone can examine. This part separates what platforms, courts and researchers have shown from what officials have said.
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Research brief · South Asia
What Indians Are Protesting About. It Isn't Prices.
Part 2 of The Protest Question. The grievance behind India's record protest count is the state's failing examination and hiring machine, not the cost of living. The data shows where the pain is, when it erupts, and what companies operating in India should read into it.
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Research brief · South Asia
Are Indians Protesting More? Yes. Here Is the Evidence.
Every count of protests that exists for India points the same way. The ACLED event record shows demonstrations nearly doubled since 2016 and at a record in 2024 to 2026. The police's own count of agitations was rising before that. A catalogue of 217 major protests since 2000 shows the rate doubling since the late 2010s. The protests are also more peaceful than a decade ago. What has fallen is rioting, which is a different thing.
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Analysis · Americas
Why China Will Get What It Wants From Trump
Xi arrives in Washington with rare earths, cheap energy, and leverage. Trump arrives with $6 diesel and a war he can't afford.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
Washington Is Now Defending Russia's Oil Refineries
American diesel passed $6 a gallon on Friday. On Sunday the President asked Ukraine to stop destroying the refineries of the country he is sanctioning. The two facts are the same fact.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
The Last Way Around Hormuz Is Closed
Drones launched from Iraq shut the pipeline that carried five million barrels a day past the strait. Brent is above $107, the ten-year Treasury is at 4.97%, and the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday.
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Analysis · Indo-Pacific
Why India and China Secretly Want the Dollar to Survive
The bloc's two biggest economies hold trillions in dollar assets, and their rivalry makes a shared alternative even less likely.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
Why Trump Can't End the Iran War After the Midterms
The Vice President says by January 2029. The theory of how wars end says neither of them controls the date.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
America Is Bombing Its Own Bond Market
Five Iranian tankers are burning, oil has crossed $100, and the U.S. Treasury is paying more than $1 trillion a year in interest. These three facts are one story.
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Analysis · Europe
Europe Is Becoming a Chinese Colony
How Europe’s trade imbalance with China is becoming a vulnerability for jobs, manufacturing, and security.
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Analysis · Indo-Pacific
China Won’t Invade Taiwan. It Will Quarantine It.
A blockade is an act of war. A quarantine is paperwork
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Analysis · Americas
Trump Doesn’t Want Money From His Allies. He Wants Their Soldiers.
South Korea pay the price of the US security guaranty
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
The U.S. Imported Iranian Oil While Bombing Iran
For one month, a quiet Treasury licence made Iranian crude legal in American ports
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Analysis · South Asia
China’s Water Bomb Has Exploded in Nepal — and the World Is Silent
Climate change broke the mountain, but China’s upstream secrecy and the world’s silence turned disaster into catastrophe.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
Russia Is Frustrated. Europe will be targeted next.
Britain crosses Moscow’s red lines, and NATO’s defences run dangerously low.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
The World Is Moving Toward a Food Crisis. Russia Could Be the Last Resort.
War, fertiliser shortages, export restrictions and El Niño are breaking the global food chain
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Analysis
The Biggest El Niño Since 1877 Could Hit Harder
This time, we have 18 months’ warning — and still no plan.
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Analysis · Americas
When Will America’s Economic Doomsday Actually Hit?
There are five things that have to happen first — and two of them happened this week.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
Iran Is Waiting for the US Midterm Elections
In 1980, It Waited for the American Election, and It Is Waiting Again.
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Analysis · Europe
How Far Can Europe Go for Ukraine?
Europe has become Ukraine’s biggest financial backer. The real question is whether Europe’s own economy can survive the cost.
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Research paper · Americas
The End of the Liberal International Order? What Comes Next, We Still Do Not Know
The liberal international order is widely held to be breaking apart, yet scholars disagree about what is breaking, when the breakdown began, and what will take its place.
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Analysis · Americas
The Crash Will Begin in America and Hit the Entire World
Much Worse Than 1929, 2000, and 2008
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Analysis · Europe
The Two-Tier System of the European Union
Why Fast-Tracking Ukraine Could Reshape EU Membership Forever
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Analysis · Americas
Why Greenland Is Not Worth It for Trump
Natural resources, power politics, and the high price of coercion
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
Russia’s War Economy Is Finally Breaking Apart
The Illusion of Strength Is Fading
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Analysis · Europe
London’s Great Wealth Exodus
Why London’s Millionaires Are Fleeing And Where They’re Heading
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Analysis · South Asia
India-Pakistan: The Next Major War?
5 ways India can respond to the terrorist attack by Pakistan
