Americas
The United States, Canada and Latin America: American strategy, the dollar economy and the alliances built on both.
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Analysis · South Asia
India’s Agricultural Trade Is Not Just About Protection or Free Trade
India’s trade talks with the United States reveal a key challenge: protecting farmers while keeping animal feed affordable. Selective imports could help feed producers but may also increase competition for Indian crop farmers.
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Research report · South Asia
The Global Gen Z Protest Wave
Why young people mobilise, how digital platforms shape unrest, and who gains power. A global research report with detailed India, Europe and Nepal analysis.
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Research report · Americas
Can America Sustain Its Global Defence Commitments?
Europe, the Middle East and East Asia, 2027–2030. A members' research report on whether the United States can keep its security commitments when crises overlap: the forces it can use, what allies can take on, and three scenarios to 2030.
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Analysis · Indo-Pacific
The US–China Truce Is Held Together by Hostages, Not Trust
Each extension of the US–China trade truce is shorter than the last. What keeps it alive before Shenzhen is not a deal but two chokepoints, China's rare earths and America's aircraft parts, each held as a hostage by the other side.
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Analysis · South Asia
The Twenty-Year War That America Lost in Victory
Afghanistan: The Human, Economic, and Strategic Cost to America, Its Allies, Pakistan, and the Region
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Opinion · Americas
Signals of a Global Geo-economic and Geopolitical Shift
Barrack's statement signals a shift in the global order, as America's enduring economic and financial dominance faces growing geopolitical competition from China and other rising powers, pushing the world toward a more multipolar system.
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Research report · South Asia
Will the US Switch On Its Waived 100% Russian-Oil Tariff, and Which Indian Exports Would Pay?
The full report. On 16 October Washington set a 100 per cent duty on the largest buyers of Russian oil and waived it in the same order. What the law and the order say, where India's Russian oil buying stands, how the waiver could end, and which Indian exports would pay if it does.
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Research brief · Americas
The Debt Behind American Power
As US debt rises, the financial value of dollar dominance grows. This essay examines whether Washington can reduce its global commitments without weakening the conditions that help sustain its borrowing advantage.
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Opinion · Americas
US Inflation Is Surging: An Alarm for the Global Economy?
Rising US inflation, driven by surging energy prices and persistent cost-of-living pressures, threatens to reshape global financial conditions and create new economic challenges for emerging markets.
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Opinion · Europe
As Europe Negotiates with China: A Test for the US and a Strategic Opportunity for ASEAN
Europe's trade negotiations with China test transatlantic economic coordination while creating a strategic opportunity for ASEAN to strengthen its role in global trade.
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Analysis · Europe
Europe's Diesel Dependence Is Now a Strategic Liability
Washington's Russian diesel waiver is not simply an American sanctions reversal. It exposes Europe's dependence on imported fuel and the limits of a common Western policy when the United States changes course.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
Bangkok's Debt Test: Who Pays for the Iran War?
The IMF and World Bank arrive in Bangkok as the Iran war drives up fuel and fertilizer costs. The crisis is not only about supply. It is about which governments still have room to protect their people, and which are being forced to pass the bill on.
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Analysis · Europe
The EU Signed Four Trade Deals in Nine Months. None of Them Solves Its Problem.
Between January and March 2026, the European Union concluded trade agreements with Mercosur, India and Australia, and began implementing the framework it struck with the United States the summer before. A steel and aluminium deadline arrives on 31 December. This brief asks whether the deals amount to a strategy or a shopping list.
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Analysis · Africa
The Lobito Corridor Isn't an Alternative to China's Railway. It's China's Railway, Re-engineered for a Western Strategic Era.
The Lobito Corridor is widely described as the West's infrastructure answer to China in Africa's critical minerals race. This analysis finds a more precise pattern: the railway's physical core was rebuilt by Chinese financing and contractors between 2006 and 2015, and what the United States, the European Union and regional development banks have financed since 2022 is the operating concession and modernization of that existing line, not a newly built alternative. The one genuinely new piece, a Zambia-Angola extension, has fallen behind its own timeline, while China has already signed a comparable concession to modernize its own competing corridor.
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Research brief · South Asia
Will the US Put a Tariff on Indian Goods Over Russian Oil, and Who Would Pay?
A new US law says the President must add a duty of up to 100 per cent to everything India sells to the United States because India buys Russian oil, unless he waives it. What the law says, how likely a duty is by 18 October, and which Indian exports would pay.
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Analysis · Africa
Why Gold Can Buy Political Distance and Garments Cannot
South Africa and Lesotho share a currency and a customs union, and absorbed the same American trade shock. The difference between their outcomes is not primarily about politics. It is about what each country sells, and how much of the value of those exports survives when the buyer changes.
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Commentary · Americas
Trump Storms the UN Stage
Trump's speech to the United Nations put the contours of 'civilizationism' into greater relief. The real test case is not Iran but Cuba — and the ideology shaping both Trump's and Rubio's approach to the western hemisphere.
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Analysis · Americas
Why China Will Get What It Wants From Trump
Xi arrives in Washington with rare earths, cheap energy, and leverage. Trump arrives with $6 diesel and a war he can't afford.
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Analysis · Africa
Who Defines Tunisia's Geopolitical Value? How Its Environment Shapes the State Itself
Tunisia's geopolitical value is not simply imposed by Europe, America or China. It is produced through an unequal exchange in which external demands reshape domestic incentives, and eventually the state itself.
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Analysis · South Asia
Bangladesh's BRICS Absence Was About More Than Protocol
Dhaka's no-show in New Delhi exposed a narrowing strategic space between BRICS-style financial autonomy and new U.S.-linked economic-security commitments.
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Analysis · Europe
Canada Cannot Join Europe. It Can Get Most of the Way There.
Ottawa is exploring a status that does not exist, with a bloc whose treaties say it cannot join, to escape a neighbour that takes seven in ten of its exports. This brief sets out what is actually on the table, what is not, and how to price the outcomes.
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Analysis · Russia & Eurasia
Washington Is Now Defending Russia's Oil Refineries
American diesel passed $6 a gallon on Friday. On Sunday the President asked Ukraine to stop destroying the refineries of the country he is sanctioning. The two facts are the same fact.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
The Last Way Around Hormuz Is Closed
Drones launched from Iraq shut the pipeline that carried five million barrels a day past the strait. Brent is above $107, the ten-year Treasury is at 4.97%, and the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday.
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Analysis · Indo-Pacific
Why India and China Secretly Want the Dollar to Survive
The bloc's two biggest economies hold trillions in dollar assets, and their rivalry makes a shared alternative even less likely.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
Why Trump Can't End the Iran War After the Midterms
The Vice President says by January 2029. The theory of how wars end says neither of them controls the date.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
America Is Bombing Its Own Bond Market
Five Iranian tankers are burning, oil has crossed $100, and the U.S. Treasury is paying more than $1 trillion a year in interest. These three facts are one story.
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Analysis · Americas
Trump Doesn’t Want Money From His Allies. He Wants Their Soldiers.
South Korea pay the price of the US security guaranty
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
The U.S. Imported Iranian Oil While Bombing Iran
For one month, a quiet Treasury licence made Iranian crude legal in American ports
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Analysis · Americas
When Will America’s Economic Doomsday Actually Hit?
There are five things that have to happen first — and two of them happened this week.
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Analysis · Middle East & North Africa
Iran Is Waiting for the US Midterm Elections
In 1980, It Waited for the American Election, and It Is Waiting Again.
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Research paper · Americas
The End of the Liberal International Order? What Comes Next, We Still Do Not Know
The liberal international order is widely held to be breaking apart, yet scholars disagree about what is breaking, when the breakdown began, and what will take its place.
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Analysis · Americas
The Crash Will Begin in America and Hit the Entire World
Much Worse Than 1929, 2000, and 2008
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Analysis · Americas
Why Greenland Is Not Worth It for Trump
Natural resources, power politics, and the high price of coercion
